Dull Derby Day Epitomises Season

Spring is here and as we see first snow drops, then crocuses, then daffodils, then tulips, fruit blossom and bluebells, the cyclical nature of life is apparent. Night follows day, follows night, the tides ebb and the tides flow. Sport, like much of nature, tends to be cyclical too and with the possible exception of Real Madrid, all clubs have their ups and downs. To put it another way, sometimes you’re the stature and sometimes you’re the pigeon!

Twenty years ago Man United were the dominant force in English football and given their vast financial resources it was hard to see how anyone could challenge them. But time passed, Sir Alex Ferguson retired, and they struggled. Over the past decade it is Man City that have replaced them as the top team in England. The combination of their wealthy owners, Pep Guardiola’s managerial nous and a strong, savvy group of administrators and technical directors had seemingly made them unstoppable.

City won the treble of Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup in 2022/23, and in 2023/24 they secured their fourth consecutive Premier League title. It was also their sixth league success in seven seasons and with all their rivals supposedly in transition in 2024/25, a fifth was presumed to be almost guaranteed.

But all of a sudden, out of nowhere, City started losing and what we assumed was a blip became a horror run. It would be premature to suggest this is the end of the Man City era and when they get Rodri fit and playing, they may well bounce back in fine style in 2025/26, especially with a few good additions over the summer. However, so bad has been their form that they are in real danger of finishing outside the top four in the Premier League.

No Manchester Side in Top Four a Distinct Possibility

Man City finished third in 2010/11 and then alternated between first and second over the four campaigns that followed. At that time they were battling it out with their cross-city rivals in red, who won the Premier League in 2010/11 and 2012/13, finishing second to City in between. At that stage it was impossible for foresee that just over a decade later United would be battling to finish inside the top 13 in the table, whilst City would be in sixth with just seven games to go.

It is unlikely, though perfectly possible, that United could finish down in 16th and City as low as ninth. These two clubs have slipped a long way, and whilst the decline of the Red Devils is far more established and long term, collectively they may create an unwanted bit of history for the city of Manchester this term.

Due to United’s sustained brilliance for the first 20 years of the Premier League – they finished no lower than third between 1992/93 and 2012/13 – and City’s excellence over the past decade and more, a Manchester side has always finished in the top four of the PL at the end of the season.

That record is in real danger, with Man United having accrued just 38 points from 31 game to sit 13th and City having 52 from their 31 games, seeing them lie sixth. Behind Liverpool the top of the table is extremely condensed, with just two points between fourth and seventh, as you can see below.

City could, of course, quite easily win their remaining seven games and end in third but the way they have been playing for months now suggests that is unlikely. A more probable scenario sees them battling for every point until the final game of the season and still, perhaps, missing out on the top four.

Pep’s side have to travel to Everton and Fulham, whilst they will host Villa and Bournemouth. That is four tough fixtures, with an FA Cup semi against Forest and possibly final too also to contend with. With Chelsea and Newcastle both looking strong, we could see history made, with no Manchester side in the Premier League top four for the first time ever.

That is not new ground that either club will be happy about. That said, it should be noted that the PL is looking increasingly likely to be given a fifth CL place next season. The goal for City was to retain their crown, so anything less is a disappointment but ultimately, as long as they are playing Champions League football next term they won’t care too much if that is due to finishing fourth or fifth.

Dull, Dour Derby a Fair Reflection of Two Struggling Clubs

Thank you for your support on derby day 🩵 pic.twitter.com/17Gx5AiG4y

— Manchester City (@ManCity) April 6, 2025

On Sunday the Manchester giants played out a dull, low-key, low-class derby at Old Trafford. The game ended 0-0 and was definitely one to forget, unlike some of the epic City v United clashes we have seen over the years. It was very much indicative of the sort of season both clubs are having, with neither performing anywhere near the levels their fans and managers want.

Tense, tight derby games are to be expected but we usually see fire, passion and commitment in those instances, but this clash lacked even that. It truly was a reflection of the state both once-great sides find themselves in and it looked like a game with nothing riding on it. From United’s perspective there was not really anything at stake, so despite them being at home, in some ways the lack of desire from City was both more surprising and more troubling.

This felt like a game between two teams who want the season over with and saw just 1.40 xG in total between clubs assembled at huge cost. In the first half both Manchester outfits had just one shot on target each and in a game of few real chances there was little in the way of tough tackles or controversy to get fans excited.

United will already be planning for next season but City need to shake some life into themselves. They have an FA Cup trophy and a place in the Champions League still to play for but right now, the unwanted history of failing to make the top four seems the more likely outcome.